# Gate 1 — one-node viability

**date:** 2026-08-13  
**result:** OPEN  
**current reading:** economically plausible enough to continue; not passed.

## Test node

One hybrid two-person node:
- produces hard candy / boiled sweets;
- has its own customer-facing sales surface;
- does not receive any efficiency benefit from the future network yet;
- two operators maximum;
- combined work budget capped at 70 hours/week for the baseline;
- Friday retail window: 4 hours baseline.

This is intentionally harsher than the mature network concept.

## Current legal/tax boundary

A Danish food business generally needs registration before operation. The official guidance also requires a written risk analysis / own-check system and traceability documentation. The retail-registration guidance explicitly discusses food communities with limited opening time, and notes that delivery from retail to other food businesses can in some cases require additional registration.

For the model date, Danish VAT is 25%.

The effective chokoladeafgiftslov states a rate of 25.97 DKK/kg for confectionery with more than 0.5 g added sugar per 100 g. A 2026 proposal to abolish the tax was rejected by the Folketing on 25 June 2026, so the tax remains in the current baseline.

## Price anchor

Observed current public examples:
- Copenhagen commodity/online pick-and-mix: roughly 169–220 DKK/kg in sampled Wolt listings.
- Sømods handmade boiled sweets: 500 g at 265 DKK and 100 g at 66 DKK, equivalent to roughly 530–660 DKK/kg depending pack size.

Therefore the model tests:
- 250 DKK/kg
- 300 DKK/kg
- 350 DKK/kg

The 300 DKK/kg baseline is a scenario, not a demand claim.

## Baseline assumptions

| Variable | Baseline |
|---|---:|
| operators | 2 |
| combined weekly hour ceiling | 70 h |
| consumer price | 300 DKK/kg incl VAT |
| net sale ex VAT | 240 DKK/kg |
| current confectionery excise | 25.97 DKK/kg |
| other variable cost placeholder | 55 DKK/kg |
| contribution after those costs | 159.03 DKK/kg |
| fixed costs placeholder | 25,000 DKK/month |
| target combined operator income | 50,000 DKK/month |

The 55 DKK/kg and 25,000 DKK/month figures are deliberately visible placeholders. They must be replaced with observed Danish costs.

## Baseline output

Required sales:

- **~471.6 kg/month**
- **~108.8 kg/week**

At the 4-hour Friday baseline:

- **~27.2 kg/hour**

If average customer basket were 450 g — an unverified assumption — the node would need:

- ~242 customers per Friday
- ~60 customers/hour

That is approximately one completed customer per minute across the four-hour window.

## Friday-window stress test

Same weekly volume:

| Friday sales window | kg/hour required |
|---:|---:|
| 2 h | 54.4 |
| 4 h | 27.2 |
| 6 h | 18.1 |

### First adversarial finding

A literal "couple of hours on Friday" is **not automatically easy**.

At this baseline, two hours requires more than 54 kg/hour of sales. The short opening window is therefore one of the first things that could kill the model unless:
- average baskets are large;
- pre-orders remove checkout friction;
- footfall is unusually concentrated;
- there is a second collection mechanism;
- price/margin is higher;
- fixed-cost or income targets are lower.

Do not solve this by quietly adding staff.

## Sensitivity

With combined operator-income target held at 50,000 DKK/month:

| Fixed/month | Price/kg inc VAT | Required kg/week |
|---:|---:|---:|
| 20k | 250 | 135.7 |
| 20k | 300 | 101.6 |
| 20k | 350 | 81.2 |
| 25k | 250 | 145.4 |
| 25k | 300 | 108.8 |
| 25k | 350 | 87.0 |
| 35k | 250 | 164.8 |
| 35k | 300 | 123.3 |
| 35k | 350 | 98.6 |

Price/margin matters enormously.

That means the model cannot hide behind "handmade premium." Consumer willingness-to-pay is a central Gate, not a marketing detail.

## Production plausibility — not yet proof

One small commercial confectionery cooker manufacturer specifies:
- optimum batch size around 10 kg;
- typical cooking time 20–60 minutes depending on recipe.

On paper, ~109 kg/week is roughly eleven 10 kg batches.

That does **not** mean eleven hours of labour. Nor does it prove the target is achievable. Cooking may be only a fraction of total work. The missing measurements are:
- weighing/setup;
- forming;
- cooling;
- cutting;
- flavour/color changes;
- cleaning;
- rejects;
- bin filling;
- allergen control;
- documentation;
- retail prep.

## Time-budget attack

The node has at most 70 combined hours/week.

Before calling Gate 1 PASS, the full weekly workflow must fit:

1. ingredient receipt / storage
2. batch setup
3. cooking
4. forming
5. cooling / finishing
6. cleaning / changeovers
7. quality/reject handling
8. traceability / own-check
9. market setup
10. Friday sales
11. close / cleaning
12. procurement / ordering
13. bookkeeping / tax/admin
14. maintenance
15. buffer for failure

A model that consumes 69 of 70 hours in a normal week should fail on resilience even if the arithmetic technically balances.

## Gate result

**OPEN**

### Why not FAIL
The baseline volume is not obviously absurd relative to small-batch confectionery equipment, and current artisan retail prices show substantial price space above commodity pick-and-mix.

### Why not PASS
The decisive variables remain synthetic:
- labour minutes/kg;
- non-tax variable cost/kg;
- fixed costs for a food-suitable premise;
- basket weight;
- customers/hour;
- waste/reject rate.

## Gate 1 next move

Get three real measurements before changing the architecture:

1. **minutes of human labour per 10 kg finished hard-candy batch**
2. **all-in variable cost per finished kg in Denmark**
3. **kg/customer and customers/hour in a comparable physical sales window**

If the 4-hour Friday window cannot clear the required volume, test 6 hours or pre-order pickup before changing the two-person ceiling.