{
  "schema_version": "hr.problem-frontier-tracker/0.1",
  "snapshot_id": "PFT-2026-07-20",
  "snapshot_date": "2026-07-20",
  "next_review_at": "2026-10-20",
  "status": "baseline_with_open_audit_questions",
  "generated_by": "scripts/problem_frontier_tracker.py",
  "comparison_contract": {
    "cadence": "quarterly",
    "rule": "Compare accepted snapshots without rewriting prior snapshots. Report new events, reclassifications, corrections, denominator changes, replenishment, and validation lag separately.",
    "fixed_cohorts": [
      "U-003",
      "U-004"
    ],
    "living_registries": [
      "U-002",
      "U-005"
    ]
  },
  "inputs": {
    "frozen_files": {
      "ai_math_events.csv": "7451b476032e3d0ac96698a4624dc353a2e76bffd7344c78aeeebc2ac84a5d6b",
      "problem_universes.csv": "ea666c33e4a311299a9b903c0ac696c075cad4645a4f9705a21d900044f24925",
      "source_capture_receipts.csv": "967e040e7cc5d0578f7a30f3f6ba5a3578473af22d2c959f7fb656bfe325ef08",
      "registry_observations.csv": "82120d24f2b7dff69e06bc2de17998bc311305e82d930c2389aaa7686c64d577",
      "alphaproof_nexus_erdos_artifacts.csv": "fc4a12c85857255a20676f79a92975edbf6ded335d3a5856a91305c236463f69",
      "alphaproof_nexus_oeis_inventory.csv": "bee9d680ac5e243333a8be7bf7149795bca126c36973179dd924cdc3a5e863e7"
    },
    "source_capture_count": 13,
    "source_revisions": [
      {
        "capture_id": "CAP-001",
        "source_id": "S-001",
        "name": "Formal Conjectures main",
        "immutable_ref": "b8b5208aa5d01f5f91c49ca516bf09cae8d93693",
        "canonical_url": "https://github.com/google-deepmind/formal-conjectures/tree/b8b5208aa5d01f5f91c49ca516bf09cae8d93693"
      },
      {
        "capture_id": "CAP-003",
        "source_id": "S-003",
        "name": "Erdos Problems main",
        "immutable_ref": "147f01e2e660d726f782ff4590722503c992361f",
        "canonical_url": "https://github.com/teorth/erdosproblems/tree/147f01e2e660d726f782ff4590722503c992361f"
      },
      {
        "capture_id": "CAP-006",
        "source_id": "S-006",
        "name": "AlphaProof Nexus results main",
        "immutable_ref": "0647711a71183c1ea492ad60860776617ce1ea88",
        "canonical_url": "https://github.com/google-deepmind/alphaproof-nexus-results/tree/0647711a71183c1ea492ad60860776617ce1ea88"
      },
      {
        "capture_id": "CAP-009",
        "source_id": "S-001",
        "name": "Formal Conjectures auto_oeis",
        "immutable_ref": "67338a157bbb8d87e9a349d662f82a868bda6327",
        "canonical_url": "https://github.com/google-deepmind/formal-conjectures/tree/67338a157bbb8d87e9a349d662f82a868bda6327/FormalConjectures/OEIS/Auto"
      }
    ],
    "paper_versions": [
      {
        "capture_id": "CAP-011",
        "source_id": "S-002",
        "name": "Formal Conjectures paper v1",
        "immutable_ref": "2605.13171v1",
        "sha256": "68704084f0619bc5a4c4a878ae083627ea299c85ce89c98d5985e71303ce14e4"
      },
      {
        "capture_id": "CAP-012",
        "source_id": "S-005",
        "name": "AlphaProof Nexus paper v1",
        "immutable_ref": "2605.22763v1",
        "sha256": "1fe6b92bb5eb0b454cd26149d7756c41cd9c48208b85c1fa447770f583e84566"
      },
      {
        "capture_id": "CAP-013",
        "source_id": "S-005",
        "name": "AlphaProof Nexus paper v2",
        "immutable_ref": "2605.22763v2",
        "sha256": "d71b78f1ea764ea0489b7fdec3c53d394cf99cd2ac2a22c1d61e744618e9573d"
      }
    ]
  },
  "events": {
    "total_rows": 14,
    "inclusion_counts": {
      "aggregate_only": 3,
      "hold_pending_validation": 1,
      "include_core": 9,
      "include_progress_only": 1
    },
    "core_event_rows": 9,
    "core_problem_count": 9,
    "progress_event_rows": 1,
    "progress_problem_count": 1,
    "core_quarters": [
      "2026-Q2"
    ],
    "median_core_problem_age_years": 32
  },
  "cohorts": {
    "U-003": {
      "name": "AlphaProof Nexus Erdős attempted cohort",
      "attempted_records": 353,
      "successful_lean_artifacts": 9,
      "natural_language_proof_artifacts": 9,
      "artifact_inventory_rows": 9,
      "artifact_rate_percent": 2.5496,
      "audit_boundary": "Artifact structure reproduced; statement fidelity, novelty, original open status, and human contribution remain under review."
    },
    "U-004": {
      "name": "AlphaProof Nexus OEIS attempted cohort",
      "attempted_mapping_records": 492,
      "claimed_successful_conjectures": 44,
      "public_result_lean_files": 38,
      "public_result_unique_sequence_ids": 37,
      "inventory_rows": 38,
      "claimed_to_file_gap": 6,
      "numerator_reconciled": false
    },
    "U-005": {
      "name": "Erdős Problems living open-like cohort",
      "registry_problem_records": 1217,
      "completely_open_records": 610,
      "open_like_component_sum": 663,
      "open_like_components": {
        "completely_open_records": 610,
        "not_provable_records": 3,
        "not_disprovable_records": 4,
        "independent_records": 3,
        "decidable_records": 9,
        "falsifiable_records": 27,
        "verifiable_records": 7
      },
      "supplied_eligible_count": 670,
      "supplied_count_current_difference": -7,
      "audit_boundary": "The living registry is a changing stock. Completely open and other non-settled status classes remain separate in reporting."
    }
  },
  "trend_readiness": {
    "ready": false,
    "minimum_individual_full_resolutions": 20,
    "reasons": [
      "Fewer than 20 included individual full-resolution problems.",
      "Included full resolutions occupy fewer than two quarters.",
      "Statement-fidelity review is incomplete for the nine included Erdős rows.",
      "No comparable replenishment series has been accepted.",
      "The OEIS success numerator is not reconciled to public result artifacts."
    ]
  },
  "open_audit_observations": [
    {
      "observation_id": "OBS-014",
      "metric_name": "claimed_successful_conjectures",
      "status": "author_claim_unreconciled",
      "notes": "The unit cannot yet be reconstructed from the public result inventory."
    },
    {
      "observation_id": "OBS-017",
      "metric_name": "supplied_completely_open_records",
      "status": "superseded_by_capture",
      "notes": "Do not use as the current count at the pinned 2026-07-20 revision."
    },
    {
      "observation_id": "OBS-018",
      "metric_name": "supplied_open_like_eligible_count",
      "status": "definition_drift",
      "notes": "The pinned component states sum to 663 under the closest explicit open-like definition."
    }
  ],
  "objects_in_time": {
    "candidate_kind": "experimental_checkpoint",
    "candidate_slug": "problem-frontier-baseline-2026-07-20",
    "candidate_state": "hold_before_registration",
    "next_comparison_at": "2026-10-20",
    "release_blockers": [
      "Reconcile the claimed 44 OEIS successes with public artifacts.",
      "Complete row-level statement-fidelity review for the nine Erdős results.",
      "Approve the public baseline audit and exact artifact bundle."
    ]
  }
}